New Energy Vehicles
2024 is regarded as a pivotal year for electrification and 800V high-voltage platforms, marking a fierce competition phase in the entire new energy vehicle industry. To enhance product capabilities, automakers are intensifying their R&D efforts and introducing various innovative technologies. Particularly in fast charging and energy replenishment, the adoption of high-voltage fast charging technology to address range anxiety in electric vehicles has become an industry consensus. However, achieving widespread adoption of the universal 800V architecture first requires resolving compatibility issues with charging equipment under high-voltage platforms, including chargers, batteries, and motors. Simultaneously, upgrades to existing grids are necessary to support the power demands of high-voltage platforms.
With continuous technological advancements and gradual infrastructure improvements, 2024 is expected to be the inaugural year for universal 800V fast charging systems, gradually becoming standard in mid-to-high-end electric vehicle models. The 800V high-voltage platform promises to bring more innovation and transformation to the new energy vehicle industry. Additionally, the price of lithium carbonate, a key battery component, saw a cumulative drop exceeding 80% in 2023, with the downward trend expected to continue into 2024, potentially intensifying competition in the new energy vehicle market.
Energy Storage
Overcapacity fails to deter the frenzied influx of capital and new players, particularly as new energy enterprises increasingly view energy storage as a secondary growth curve. Leading photovoltaic manufacturers and power battery companies are vigorously entering the energy storage sector, alongside numerous cross-industry players. According to Tianyancha data, the number of newly established energy storage-related enterprises reached 72,000 in 2023, a 1.8-fold increase from 2022. Media reports indicate there are nearly 109,000 energy storage companies in China presently.
A new round of restructuring is gradually unfolding, favoring firms with core technologies to stabilize their market positions. Among various types of emerging energy storage, electrochemical energy storage stands out as the most commercially mature and widely applied due to significant cost reductions and high energy density. However, it faces challenges such as inadequate safety, insufficient storage duration, and difficulties in recycling. Currently, a broader array of emerging energy storage technologies is gaining attention for their significant advantages in enhancing power system flexibility, promoting renewable energy integration, and ensuring grid security.
Smart Driving
The trend towards intelligent upgrades has become the dominant theme in today's new energy vehicles. Features like intelligent driving, smart cabins, and intelligent gateways continue to emerge, demanding diverse computing capabilities. For instance, in 2023, vehicles equipped with advanced process smart cabin chips officially hit the market. The new Mercedes-Benz long-wheelbase E-Class, Arcfox 01, and Xpeng P7 all debut with the industry's first 5nm smart cabin chip - the Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295. High-computing power autonomous driving chips are also becoming more widespread. Vehicles like the Arcfox 007 and NIO ES7 are equipped with NVIDIA DRIVE Orin, currently one of the most powerful autonomous driving integrated chips on the market, boasting a single-chip computing power of 254 TOPS. Furthermore, continuous improvements in sensors, cameras, radar, control chips, and communication technologies are opening up greater opportunities for the development and innovation of automotive intelligence features.
Satellite Communications
Following suit, Apple also began similar strategic initiatives and investments. According to reports, the number of traditional handheld phone users is expected to continue declining, while the user base for satellite direct communication is projected to reach around 130 million by 2032. As early as December 2022, 3GPP initiated research integrating satellites with 5G New Radio (NR) technology, termed as Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN). This integration underscores 3GPP's heightened focus on satellite communications, significantly impacting the entire satellite communication industry, with various satellite communication operators actively seeking opportunities for integrating satellite communication with terrestrial cellular networks. It is forecasted that by 2030, global mobile connections via non-terrestrial networks are expected to reach 175 million, and the annual market size of global satellite services will exceed USD 120 billion.
Robotics
Commercial robot products are experiencing explosive growth and are being widely applied across various fields. At the 2024 Technology Spring Gala, numerous companies unveiled more than ten commercial robot products. Concurrently, global AI giants NVIDIA and OpenAI publicly announced their investment plans in humanoid robots for 2024. Domestically, the scene is equally vibrant; as of December 2023, over 30 domestic humanoid robot products have been unveiled, with some already undergoing small-scale deployment. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Guidance on Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots" released on November 2, 2023, the government is accelerating industrialization and has outlined specific goals and measures. Humanoid robots are being elevated to a national strategic level, and the Chinese humanoid robot industry is poised for explosive growth in the next 2-3 years.
Wearables
Although the concept of health and wearables is well-worn, consumers are no longer indifferent to innovations in devices like smart bracelets and watches. Manufacturers continue to explore the next breakthrough in wearable technology. Recently, there has been a constant buzz about new wearables such as the Galaxy Ring, OnePlus, and the newly launched Vision Pro, where health features have become essential and generative AI is accelerating integration, revitalizing the smart wearables market. According to market research firm Shunpu Consulting Group, the wearable device market in China reached $3.8 billion in 2022. It is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2025.
Smart Buildings
In recent years, China's smart building industry has experienced rapid growth, with the market size continuously expanding. This growth is primarily attributed to accelerated urbanization, continuous advancements in information technology, and improving living standards. According to the report "2023-2028 Deep Analysis and Investment Potential Forecast of China's Smart Building Industry Market" published by Huajing Industry Research Institute, the global smart building market was valued at $67.6 billion in 2021. The market is projected to grow from $80.62 billion in 2022 to $328.62 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.2% during the forecast period from 2022 to 2029.
In recent years, the smart construction industry has continued to develop. In 2023, China's smart building construction market reached ￥653.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%. The integration and fusion of new technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and 5G in smart building technologies are posing new challenges and requirements for the development of smart building technologies. How to propel "intelligent empowerment of buildings" to new heights is a crucial issue that the entire construction industry will need to face and address in the future.
Edge Intelligence
2023 undoubtedly witnessed the explosion of generative AI, led by ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion, among others. Major industry giants including Meta, Baidu, Microsoft, and Alibaba raced to deploy their own large-scale models. The application of generative AI in vertical markets signifies its expansion beyond just the cloud, extending to the edge. This includes not only enterprise and data center edges but also increasingly critical roles in endpoint devices such as PCs, smartphones, and even embedded applications. Initiatives like Intel's AI PC concept and MediaTek's integration of generative AI acceleration engines into mobile AP SoCs highlight this trend. Overall, stakeholders across different sectors are eagerly positioning themselves to seize opportunities in this new era of generative AI.
Smart Power
The power supply industry, serving as a fundamental sector across various fields, has generally maintained stable growth over time. Its applications continue to expand into emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, distributed photovoltaics, wind energy, LED lighting, IT communications, healthcare, cloud computing, big data, and smart cities. Currently, technologies related to power supplies for smart terminals like smartphones, tablets, laptops, and gaming consoles are a prominent topic of discussion. Particularly noteworthy are the widespread adoption of fast charging and wireless charging technologies, with power ratings ranging from 5W to 240W setting new records. Over the years, traditional AC-DC and DC-DC circuit architectures have blossomed amidst the surge in fast charging, fostering a diverse market landscape and driving significant growth in demand for power supplies. According to forecasts by the China Power Supply Association, the power supply industry is expected to maintain steady growth over the next five years, with China's market size projected to reach 488.7 billion yuan by 2025.
Third-Generation Semiconductors
The development of third-generation semiconductors, led by materials like gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC), plays a pivotal role in supporting national carbon neutrality goals and advancing highly intelligent, digitalized, and electrified societies. Evolving from initial 65W capabilities to current 18W-300W PD fast charging, these semiconductors offer superior characteristics such as higher voltage endurance, thermal resistance, and radiation tolerance. They have proven their superior performance in the market, demonstrating advantages in size and cost reduction, while gaining gradual acceptance for their reliability.
As sectors like new energy vehicles, 5G communications, and space exploration continue to expand, the demand for third-generation semiconductor materials is expected to rise. Applications of GaN, for instance, are extending beyond fast charging in smartphones to data centers, communication power supplies, and electric vehicles. The rapid growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage paves the way for high-power applications of third-generation semiconductors and establishes new platforms for their use.According to Yole's projections, the silicon carbide market is anticipated to reach $8.9 billion and the gallium nitride market $4.7 billion by 2028.
